Futures Guide: Maintain the Seasonal Valuation Recovery Outlook for PX in the Medium Term

February 10, 2025, 08:55

The valuation of PX has rebounded from a low level, primarily driven by expectations of improved supply and demand in the future. In the first quarter, there is a demand for gasoline blending in the United States, while the operating rates of PX in Asia are declining and downstream chemical demand is increasing, leading to a mismatch in PX supply and demand. Therefore, it is advisable to maintain a seasonal valuation recovery outlook for PX in the medium term. The PTA industry is currently in a stockpiling phase, with low processing margins. The absolute price will continue to follow the raw material prices. In the future, as polyester production resumes, the industry's supply and demand situation may improve. It is important to pay attention to the performance of downstream orders.

Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol has seen an increase in inventory during the Spring Festival, and the market performance has been weak after the holiday. Several planned restarts of facilities in February have been delayed. In the short term, the market is digesting the inventory pressure. In the long term, the new annual ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low production start-up pattern. With concentrated maintenance in the second quarter and seasonal recovery in consumption, the supply and demand situation may improve.

Short Fiber & Bottle Grade: After the holiday, the price of short fiber has rebounded along with the raw materials, and the processing margin has fluctuated. In the long run, due to low production start-ups, the market supply and demand situation is expected to improve, and the downward space for processing margins is limited. Short fiber facilities have gradually restarted after the holiday, and it is important to pay attention to the recovery of downstream production and the inventory replenishment rhythm. The futures price of bottle grade has rebounded due to cost push. Under the surplus situation, the processing margin continues to be under pressure, and the absolute price will fluctuate along with the raw material prices.