NOACY Futures: PTA is Suggested to Follow a Range-Bound Trend May 6, 2025 08:40

NOACY Futures: PTA is Suggested to Follow a Range-Bound Trend

May 6, 2025 08:40

PX: Currently, both PX and downstream industries are in the maintenance period. The load of downstream PTA facilities has rebounded to a high level in the same period in previous years, and the polyester load still has some resilience. It is expected that PX will continue to deplete inventory in May. Under the influence of OPEC's confirmed increase in production quotas, oil prices are expected to be weak and stable after the holiday, and PX prices are mainly expected to fluctuate in line with oil prices. Considering that the PXN has been continuously compressed to a low level recently, the downside space for PX is relatively limited.

PTA: With OPEC's confirmed increase in production in June, PTA is expected to open low after the holiday due to cost drag. Although the overall terminal orders are still weak and downstream confidence is lacking, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine operating rate has peaked and is falling back, with the maintenance of Jia Tong, Yisheng Daha and Hengli Huizhou PTA facilities successively implemented, and the polyester load still maintained at a high level, PTA will continue to deplete inventory in May and still has some support on the downside.

EG: Under the influence of OPEC's increase in production, the cost end of crude oil support for ethylene glycol is weakened. At the same time, the load of ethylene glycol has increased as the previously shut-down synthesis gas - made facilities have been restarted one after another, and import goods have been unloaded successively. However, some oil - made facilities have begun to reduce production and operate negatively. The polyester load is expected to be maintained at around 90% in June, and there is no significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory. The market price has a low - position support and is expected to fluctuate mainly.

Short fiber: In terms of supply, as of April 30, the short fiber load was 91.3%, unchanged from the previous period and at a high level in the same period in the past three years. In terms of demand, the terminal demand has slightly improved recently as the US tariffs on China have been slightly relaxed, but the downstream confidence is still insufficient. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machines has slightly increased to 72%, while the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines has been adjusted down to 54%. The short fiber inventory is 14 days, down 1.5 days from the previous period, and the inventory is generally controllable. Affected by the expected decline in the cost end, the short fiber price is expected to adjust weakly after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the trend of the cost end.

Bottle sheet: In terms of supply, the previously shut-down facilities have been restarted one after another. As of April 30, the bottle sheet load (calculated based on the designed production capacity) was 90.8%, still at a relatively low level in the same period in the past three years. In terms of demand, the terminal makes appropriate purchases at low prices, and the demand is good recently. The bottle sheet inventory last week was 14.41 days, down 0.19 days from the previous week, and was at a medium level in the same period in the past three years. The current processing difference of bottle sheet is about 450 yuan / ton. The upward space in the short term is suppressed by the cost end. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil.