【Market Update】Polyester Futures Rally on Oil Rebound (Apr 21, 2025)

2025-04-21 15:01

At the beginning of the session, the polyester raw material end rose the most, helped by the recent rebound in international oil prices, and then cooled down. At the close, ethylene glycol led the increase by 2.16%, and PTA rose by 0.97%. The domestic supply of EG decreased, and the demand side temporarily remained high, which formed a strong positive support for the market.

The negative impact of the trade war on chemical products is mainly transmitted through two channels: the collapse of cost-side prices and the shrinking demand in the terminal market. The United States's global tariffs have triggered market concerns about economic recession and declining crude oil demand. As a raw material for chemical products, especially polyester products, the decline in crude oil prices has led to a sharp drop in costs, which in turn has caused a sharp drop in the prices of related chemical products.

Last week, the spot price of PTA market was mainly weak. Terminal export orders were suspended or cancelled, terminal load decreased during the traditional peak season, trade disputes were repeated, and downstream companies mostly took a wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing for rigid needs, and it was difficult to find substantial drivers in the market.

In early April, the market changed unexpectedly due to the tariff policy. With the downward shift of the cost side, the factory inventory depreciated after the decline of filament and staple fiber, while the immediate production profit improved to a certain extent. It is expected that the production reduction of polyester factories will be less than expected. Unlike the rhythm of fiber products, the operating rate of bottle flake factories after the Spring Festival fell first and then rose. Recently, according to the designed capacity, the operating load of bottle flake factories has recovered to 85%. With the pull of seasonal warming demand, the previous maintenance equipment is expected to continue to increase the operating rate.

The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry: 91.08%, a decrease of 0.23% month-on-month. The main reason for the different trends in output and capacity utilization is: the maintenance and restart of the equipment coexist during the week. Although Rongsheng was overhauled for some reason, Shenjiu was restarted, Sanfangxiang increased the load, and Jingwei equipment was included in the capacity. The overall supply increase was slightly higher than the reduction, which led to a slight increase in weekly output. However, the inclusion of new capacity caused a slight decline in capacity utilization during the week.

As for PX, Longzhong Information believes that there is still room for cost increase. The current PX processing fee is too low, and companies have experienced unplanned shutdowns and maintenance. The price is mainly weak, and the overall price is 730-780 US dollars/ton CFR China.