NOACY Futures: Polyester Markets Brace for Oil Volatility (May 19, 2025)

📈 NOACY Futures: Polyester Markets Brace for Oil Volatility (May 19, 2025)‌

🔥 Crude Rally Rules the Game‌

U.S.-Iran talks + rising oil prices dominate market sentiment. Key supports in focus:

PTA‌: 4,700 RMB/ton

MEG‌: 4,380 RMB/ton

Short Fiber‌: 6,450 RMB/ton

🛢️ PTA – Tight Supply vs Macro Jitters‌

Supply Squeeze‌: Operating rates drop to ‌74.63%‌ (↓0.35% WoW), output at ‌1.2967M tons‌ (↓5,400 tons WoW).

Demand Dip‌: Polyester operating rates slip to ‌90.93%‌ (↓0.56% WoW) → inventory digestion mode.

Bullish Signal‌: PTA plant stocks fall to ‌4.28 days‌ (↓0.23 days), tight basis spreads hold.

⚡ MEG – Import Tsunami Ahead?‌

Supply Rising‌: Domestic output up ‌1.53% WoW‌; port stocks climb to ‌663,800 tons‌ (+7,700 tons).

Red Flag‌: ‌96,000 tons‌ of imports arriving next week → pressure on prices.

Wildcard‌: Coal-to-MEG margins at risk if oil swings sharply.

🧵 Short Fiber – Demand Fatigue Bites‌

Overproduction‌: Output jumps ‌1.52% WoW‌ → physical stocks hit ‌18.24 days‌ (+0.16 days).

Weak Orders‌: Polyester yarn mills cut purchases; raw material inventories dip to ‌9.25 days‌.

Silver Lining‌: Pure-PSY operating rates rebound ‌11.08%‌ – fleeting relief?

🚨 NOACY’s Tactical Playbook‌

1️⃣ ‌PTA‌: Trade the ‌4,700-5,000 RMB/ton‌ range – lean bullish on supply cuts but hedge oil risks!

2️⃣ ‌MEG‌: Avoid chasing rallies – port glut likely to cap upside.

3️⃣ ‌Short Fiber‌: Sell spikes above ‌6,600 RMB/ton‌ until orders rebound.

💬 Poll‌: Which support level breaks FIRST if oil tumbles?

A) PTA 4,700 B) MEG 4,380 C) Short Fiber 6,450

Vote now!‌ 👇

#PolyesterMarkets #OilPriceRisk #FuturesTrading

Source: NOACY Futures, CZCE

(Data as of May 19, 2025)